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A Sunny View of Oblivion Despite a plethora of television programs and books on the topic, predicting the End of the World has become boring.
Many ancient cultures developed a highly sophisticated understanding of astronomy. An obsession of the Mayans, the more they learned, the more they understood the relationship of the Earth, the Sun, and the observable solar system. In a curious coincidence, China’s ancient "I Ching" is a book that, like the Mayans, predicts 2012 as the end of the world. Ever since Galileo invented the telescope in 1610, the notion that the Sun is at the center of our solar system has come to be an accepted fact, but oddly the Sun does not receive credit for the Earth’s climate. More than any other factor, however, the Sun influences and determines known climate cycles such as Ice Ages. Deliberately confusing people still further is all the blather about an Earth-threatening "global warming" caused by scary "greenhouse gases." This silliness is used to justify the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, i.e., limiting the use of any and all energy sources. I guess we’re really lucky that two billion people still don’t even have access to electricity. Of course, they may not be thrilled by it. Aside from the fact that 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapor, scientists with no agenda other than, well, science, are far more concerned about what the Sun has been doing of late and what it is likely to be doing within five years. If they’re right, humanity is in big trouble. Lawrence E. Joseph has authored "Apocalypse 2021: A Scientific Investigation Into Civilization’s End" ($23.95, Morgan Road Books) and, aside from scaring the reader with some interesting science, history, and conjecture, the book performs the useful service of getting one to focus on the Sun, a huge, gelatinous mass of roiling gases that, depending on what it is doing, either heats or cools the Earth. What it is doing lately is behaving oddly. We’re all familiar with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the four 2004 hurricanes that hit Florida in rapid succession. Then following all that hurricane activity, none made landfall in 2006. The connection is the way sunspot activity correlates with climatic conditions on Earth. Lawrence notes that, "By every scientific measure, 2005 was supposed to have seen very few sunspots", explaining that, "Sunspots are larger-than-Earth magnetic storms that blemish the solar surface." In fact, on Halloween 2003 sunspot activity generated the largest radiation storm ever recorded. Happily, most of it missed the Earth, but the real mystery is why it occurred at or near the solar minimum, the point in the eleven-year cycle when there is supposed to be little solar sunspot activity. Scientists have long known that sunspots occur in cycles of nine to thirteen years, most often lasting about eleven years. The next cycle will begin in 2012. Sami Solanki of the famed Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany believes, "Except possibly for a few brief peaks, the Sun is more active currently than at any time in the past 11,000 years." So, yes, the Earth may be warming slightly, but it has nothing to do with human activity. Moreover, 11,000 years ago coincides approximately with the end of the last Ice Age. Depending on whom you believe, we are either due a new Ice Age or the Sun is about to roast the Earth like a marshmallow. Lawrence bases his prediction of nasty things on the theory of an interstellar energy cloud. Such a cloud would destabilize the Sun. To his credit, Lawrence does not believe the end of the Earth will occur in 2012, but he does believe we are entering a period of "unprecedented turmoil and upheaval" as the result of the Sun’s odd behavior. A lot of science appears to support his view. By the time you get to the end of his book, he recommends you grab hold of any mythology or theology that works for you because he admits he hasn’t a clue if or when doomsday will occur. People have been predicting the End of the Earth or the End Times for a very long time, dating back to the Mayan civilization that, you may have noticed, isn’t around any more. The Bible has similar predictions and Islam, too, subscribes to its own version. Given the science-based scenarios and the fact that the Earth has gone through some fairly astonishing changes over the last five billion years or so, it is likely that some very unpleasant events will occur sometime. Fear not, the cockroaches will survive. Want to see what the Sun is doing? Visit http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ While contemplating the worst, let us celebrate the present by trying to balance what we know against the many scenarios about what could occur. To do that, the Center publishes my weekly commentaries and disseminates them widely, and to do that we need your donation. Please give what you can. Thanks. What Do We Really Know About al Qaeda? Americans can hardly be blamed for wondering what the government knows about al Qaeda and what it doesn’t. Throughout July they were assailed by headlines that they should expect an attack, followed often the next day by headlines saying they should not be concerned. Headlines said al Qaeda had reconstituted itself with training camps or that it had been severely degraded by losses of killed or captured. Most analysts of the botched car bombing attempts in London and Glasgow have concluded that they were perpetrated by a bunch of amateurs "inspired" by the bloviations of al Qaeda. The question remains as to how good the intelligence is regarding the size and capability of al Qaeda. I am beginning to have doubts about how powerful and influential al Qaeda really is these days. Individual acts of terror can grab our attention, as 9/11 demonstrates, we move passed them, just as we did with the attacks on our embassies, the USS Cole, and other events. In short, we conclude that we live in an era of terrorism. I suspect that it will be a long one.
Al Qaeda is famous among counter-intelligence folk for being extremely concerned about its security procedures. Its leaders may be urging Muslims to sacrifice their lives to further the Islamic revolution, bring about the global caliphate, or just overthrow the rulers of the Gulf States they want to control, but the top brass are extremely reluctant to put themselves in harm’s way. Not a day goes by when the headlines around the world attribute some attack or statement to al Qaeda, but many are beginning to suspect that al Qaeda is not the bogyman it used to be in former times. Gone, too, seem to be the days of the well-executed Madrid railroad bombings. What remains are efforts such as the July 2005 London subway and bus bombings by men who likely had no direct contact or affiliation with al Qaeda. The thwarted attacks in the U.S. seem only to further point to independent radical Muslims inspired to create some murder and mayhem, but not being directed by some al Qaeda mastermind. Other attacks around the world can represent the work of any one of the other major Islamist groups. Speculation seems to coalesce around the view that al Qaeda’s small group of leaders—the ones that haven’t been killed at this point—are more focused on their personal survival than grandiose plans. On Strategypage.com, one unidentified analyst, writing on July 1, noted that "al Qaeda continues to take a beating, but you can ignite a media firestorm just saying that", adding that "al Qaeda operations continue to decline, as the number of al Qaeda members, and leaders killed or captured goes up." According to the analyst, "No one is talking, but al Qaeda chatter claims that either the Americans have some wondrous new bit of technology or Yankee money has corrupted more al Qaeda members to give up information." It’s not like al Qaeda isn’t still active, particularly in the battlefield of Iraq, but it is also worth noting that they are often alienating the very people whose support they need. Reports that they are assassinating Sunni tribal chiefs who oppose them suggests a real problem exists for al Qaeda, even in what would be presumed to be friendly territory. Staying long enough to provide protection to both Sunnis and Shiites under attack may well be the only way to gain the upper hand. In Europe, al Qaeda presumably should be able to find plenty of support. Recall that 9/11 was plotted in Europe before its perpetrators made their way to America. However, many Muslims in Europe are reportedly not eager to support bombings and other actions that would cause even more friction with their guest nations. In France, the new prime minister is openly calling for deportation of those deemed to pose a threat. Great Britain, a hotbed of political correctness, is still trying to make up its mind what to say or do regarding its considerable Muslim population. In "The Many Faces of Al Qaeda", Peter Zeihan of the private intelligence firm, Stratfor, whose clients pay to receive the kind of information and insight they cannot get from the often confusing and conflicting signals coming out of the official U.S. agencies, the terror group is perceived differently from the global octopus we most frequently hear about. He concludes that al Qaeda, by necessity, "is a small, close-knit group." His view is that it "consists of little more than Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and a double handful of trusted, heavily vetted relationships stretching back more than a decade." "Ultimately," says Zeihan, "the same security protocols that empowered al Qaeda to be a player of strategic scope are what removed al Qaeda from the chessboard." This makes a lot of sense, but what confuses a lot of people is that al Qaeda is not the only Islamic jihadist organization. Indeed, in nations that include Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Uzbekistan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Southeast Asia, a number of well-established groups exist. They tend not to be on the media radar screen and are frequently just lumped in with al Qaeda. So al Qaeda today may be less than an organization of any size than "a franchise" that others use to justify their murderous plots. Physically, everyone seems to agree that bin Laden and his merry band are holed up in the no-man’s-land of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region. A lot depends, from the U.S. point of view, on how long Pakistani’s military/political leader, Pervez Musharraf, can stay in power. Even he has had to order a recent attack on a particularly troublesome hotbed of Islamism, the infamous Red Mosque, leaving behind a pile of dead bodies by way of letting everyone know who is running Pakistan…for now at least. Since al Qaeda, at least in terms of its announced objectives, is as much a threat to the rulers of the Gulf kingdoms, the U.S. is likely to receive their cooperation to destroy its operatives wherever they find them. This is true as well of the much older Muslim Brotherhood, al Zawahiri’s earliest affiliation. Still active in Egypt, it has assumed a political role while continuing to advocate sharia law over secular governance. Though Americans are tired of the long occupation of Iraq and it is argued that our presence there only serves to recruit more wannabe martyrs, a hasty retreat will surely re-energize al Qaeda. Its initial success grew out of the victory it had, along with Afghani tribes, in forcing the former Soviet Union to retreat from Afghanistan. The perception of an American defeat in Iraq could only serve al Qaeda’s interests. What al Qaeda shares with the mass of the population in the Middle East is the belief that all of that region’s troubles can be blamed on America, England, and Israel. The reasoning goes that, if only sharia law could replace the despots running the nations there, everything would improve. The source of all of the problems in the Middle East, however, has been and remains Islamic governance. So, what is it? A vast powerful, but shadowy organization adept at using the Internet to conduct its operations and recruit more people to its cause? Or is it just a group of rather pathetic, but dangerously deluded old men hiding out on the Pakistan border? Does anyone really know? Raising questions is as important as paying attention to events. That’s part of the Center’s mission. Your donation makes that possible.
©
2007 Alan Caruba. |
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For example, on June 10th you had a choice between watching the 61st Annual Tony Awards or "Last Days on Earth" on the History Channel. "Scientists explain seven of the deadliest threats to humanity," was the topic and, later that evening, you could check out "Mega Disasters" with its story of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Indeed, hardly a week goes by without some television program devoted to the planet’s extinction.
A recent al Qaeda video had its second in command and chief spokesman these days, Ayman al-Zawahiri, providing narration and some regarded it as more suggestive of weakness than strength, given its litany of complaints and threats. Images of Osama bin Laden were released late by al Qaeda’s propaganda factory, but they were deemed to be old ones. For someone with his ego, that seems odd.